{"id":927,"date":"2018-06-29T19:00:12","date_gmt":"2018-06-29T19:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/balmertcom.com\/?p=927"},"modified":"2019-01-22T19:41:30","modified_gmt":"2019-01-23T00:41:30","slug":"safe-to-assume","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/balmert.com\/pt\/2018\/06\/29\/safe-to-assume\/","title":{"rendered":"Seguro assumir?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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"Voc\u00ea sabe como essa palavra \u00e9 escrita, n\u00e3o \u00e9?"<\/em><\/p>

~ Comandante da Base, Fort Sill<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Dateline: Houston, Texas, EUA: mais uma daquelas hist\u00f3rias tristes sobre uma fatalidade no local de trabalho. Este aconteceu com algu\u00e9m designado para mover tubos empilhados em um p\u00e1tio de armazenamento. Um dos blocos de madeira que sustentavam a pilha quebrou; a pilha desabou em cima da pessoa em perigo.<\/span><\/p>

Por ser um evento fatal, \u00e9 seguro presumir que haver\u00e1 uma investiga\u00e7\u00e3o. Voc\u00ea pode presumir que a investiga\u00e7\u00e3o examinar\u00e1 a condi\u00e7\u00e3o dos blocos de madeira que sustentavam a pilha, o tamanho e a disposi\u00e7\u00e3o da pilha, o solo e como o tubo estava sendo movido. Tamb\u00e9m \u00e9 seguro presumir que algo ser\u00e1 considerado errado para explicar o que deu errado.<\/span><\/p>

A menos que isso tenha sido um ato de Deus.<\/span><\/p>

Sabe-se que isso aconteceu, mas s\u00e3o poucos e raros. Quando as coisas d\u00e3o errado, \u00e9 sempre melhor presumir que existem causas mais simples e explic\u00e1veis: essas causas s\u00e3o aquelas sobre as quais n\u00f3s, humanos, podemos realmente fazer algo.<\/span><\/p>

Ao contr\u00e1rio de esperar e orar, isso n\u00e3o acontecer\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>

Um momento de alta influ\u00eancia \u00a9<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

As pessoas fazem suposi\u00e7\u00f5es o tempo todo. Eles simplesmente n\u00e3o reconhecem necessariamente o que est\u00e3o fazendo. Volte e releia a primeira se\u00e7\u00e3o desta edi\u00e7\u00e3o do News: h\u00e1 quatro suposi\u00e7\u00f5es feitas nos primeiros quatro par\u00e1grafos. Pelo menos cada um foi declarado e rotulado.<\/span><\/p>

Anexar uma etiqueta de aviso a cada um pode n\u00e3o ser uma m\u00e1 ideia tamb\u00e9m.<\/span><\/p>

......<\/span><\/p>

4 de julho. 10h, s\u00e1bado de manh\u00e3. Lawton, Oklahoma. Uma manh\u00e3 de s\u00e1bado muito quente. Estou sentado na arquibancada, observando o que est\u00e1 acontecendo.<\/span><\/p>

Quanto ao que era, n\u00e3o era o jogo de bola T das crian\u00e7as no s\u00e1bado de manh\u00e3. As arquibancadas ficam em Fort Sill. Duzentos de n\u00f3s - cadetes do ROTC da For\u00e7a A\u00e9rea - fomos \u201cconvidados\u201d para assistir ao Boom Boom Show da Artilharia do Ex\u00e9rcito: uma exibi\u00e7\u00e3o surpreendente da capacidade do armamento da artilharia de campo de causar estragos no inimigo. Fale sobre bombas explodindo no ar!<\/span><\/p>

Mas sem prote\u00e7\u00e3o auditiva: est\u00e1vamos em 1970.<\/span><\/p>

Por aqui, chamamos isso de Momentos de Alta Influ\u00eancia. Se voc\u00ea leu o livro ou fez o curso, sabe exatamente o que s\u00e3o. Se voc\u00ea est\u00e1 co\u00e7ando a cabe\u00e7a porque n\u00e3o est\u00e1, envie-nos um e-mail e n\u00f3s lhe daremos todas as informa\u00e7\u00f5es.<\/span><\/p>

O que veio a seguir foi um momento ainda maior, pelo menos para mim. O discurso p\u00f3s-evento sobre as li\u00e7\u00f5es aprendidas. Vindo do Comandante da Base, um Coronel Full Bird, como costum\u00e1vamos dizer, antigamente. Fazendo as contas de mais de meio s\u00e9culo depois, ele tinha idade suficiente para ser meu pai.<\/span><\/p>

"Homens\u2026." ele entoou. Este foi o Ex\u00e9rcito dos EUA, 1970. N\u00e3o \u00e9 exatamente uma noite de menino, mas voc\u00ea entendeu. Houve uma guerra.<\/span><\/p>

\u201c\u2026 .H\u00e1 uma grande li\u00e7\u00e3o a ser aprendida com esta exibi\u00e7\u00e3o. \u00c9 essencial para a sobreviv\u00eancia no campo de batalha. Nunca assuma nada! \u201d<\/span><\/p>

O Coronel continuou: \u201cVoc\u00ea sabe como se soletra essa palavra, n\u00e3o sabe? ASSUME E. Quando voc\u00ea assume, voc\u00ea faz de mim e de voc\u00ea um idiota. \u201d<\/span><\/p>

\u00c9 justo dizer que essa mensagem deixou uma impress\u00e3o. Uma impress\u00e3o duradoura.<\/span><\/p>

Assumindo que\u2026..<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

As pessoas fazem suposi\u00e7\u00f5es o tempo todo. Qual destes \u00e9 seguro assumir?<\/span><\/p>

  • Um carro se aproximando de um sem\u00e1foro parar\u00e1 quando o sem\u00e1foro ficar vermelho.<\/span><\/li>
  • Um carro que se aproxima de uma faixa de pedestres dar\u00e1 prefer\u00eancia a um pedestre que cruze.<\/span><\/li>
  • Conforme o trem se aproxima de uma passagem de n\u00edvel, o sinal \u00e9 ativado e o port\u00e3o de passagem fecha.<\/span><\/li>
  • Um corrim\u00e3o suportar\u00e1 o peso da pessoa que o segura.<\/span><\/li><\/ul>

    Tenho certeza que voc\u00ea sabe a resposta. Estou de posse de evid\u00eancias concretas para provar que sua resposta est\u00e1 correta: cada uma dessas suposi\u00e7\u00f5es foi provada errada. A cada vez, fazer essa suposi\u00e7\u00e3o n\u00e3o faria apenas papel de bobo na pessoa envolvida. Essas suposi\u00e7\u00f5es poderiam ter - e t\u00eam - custado a vida de uma pessoa em perigo.<\/span><\/p>

    Voc\u00ea sabe disso. Todo mundo sabe que. Mas saber disso n\u00e3o impede as pessoas de fazerem suposi\u00e7\u00f5es. Isso \u00e9 um problema. O problema mais s\u00e9rio \u00e9 que as pessoas n\u00e3o fazem apenas suposi\u00e7\u00f5es, elas confiam nessas suposi\u00e7\u00f5es.<\/span><\/p>

    Eu poderia parar neste ponto e simplesmente encerrar esta edi\u00e7\u00e3o do News com o conselho: \u201cEnt\u00e3o, n\u00e3o fa\u00e7a isso. N\u00e3o fa\u00e7a suposi\u00e7\u00f5es. N\u00e3o confie em suposi\u00e7\u00f5es. \u201d \u00c9 um bom conselho. Colocado em pr\u00e1tica, o mundo seria mais seguro por isso.<\/span><\/p>

    Mas, presumo que ningu\u00e9m far\u00e1 isso.<\/span><\/p>

    E n\u00e3o apenas porque n\u00e3o sou Comandante da Base. Ou um coronel Full Bird.<\/span><\/p>

    Baseando-se em suposi\u00e7\u00f5es<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

    Por melhor que seja uma ideia - confiar em suposi\u00e7\u00f5es realmente n\u00e3o \u00e9 uma boa ideia - coloque-a completamente em pr\u00e1tica, n\u00e3o assuma nada e voc\u00ea pode nem chegar ao trabalho de manh\u00e3.<\/span><\/p>

    Despertador? Certifique-se de ter um backup. Seguran\u00e7a alimentar na cozinha? Ligue para o Departamento de Sa\u00fade para uma inspe\u00e7\u00e3o antes de tomar o caf\u00e9 da manh\u00e3. Seguran\u00e7a do ve\u00edculo? Verifique embaixo do carro e ao redor dos po\u00e7os das rodas antes de dar r\u00e9 na garagem. Verifique os freios antes de entrar na estrada. Na estrada? Monitore cada carro que se aproxima de cada cruzamento para garantir que ele pare. Se voc\u00ea diminuir a velocidade para fazer isso, verifique no espelho retrovisor se o motorista que est\u00e1 seguindo voc\u00ea percebe que voc\u00ea est\u00e1 diminuindo a velocidade. Eles provavelmente est\u00e3o assumindo que voc\u00ea n\u00e3o \u00e9.<\/span><\/p>

    Por uma quest\u00e3o pr\u00e1tica, voc\u00ea deve fazer e confiar em certas suposi\u00e7\u00f5es. Caso contr\u00e1rio, a vida pararia.<\/span><\/p>

    O problema \u00e9 que cada vez que voc\u00ea confia em suposi\u00e7\u00f5es, pode acabar sendo provado que est\u00e1 errado.<\/span><\/p>

    O que voc\u00ea faz sobre essa situa\u00e7\u00e3o?<\/span><\/p>

    Para come\u00e7ar, que tal ser inteligente sobre as suposi\u00e7\u00f5es que voc\u00ea faz? Algumas suposi\u00e7\u00f5es t\u00eam consequ\u00eancias potenciais maiores do que outras. Perder o alarme, voc\u00ea pode chegar atrasado para o trabalho. Saudades daquele carro que n\u00e3o p\u00e1ra no sinal vermelho, voc\u00ea pode aparecer no pronto-socorro.<\/span><\/p>

    Bons h\u00e1bitos e pr\u00e1ticas podem tornar seguro confiar em certas suposi\u00e7\u00f5es. Limpe o balc\u00e3o da cozinha ap\u00f3s o jantar na noite anterior, mantenha os alimentos refrigerados e lave a lou\u00e7a. Provavelmente, \u00e9 normal presumir que voc\u00ea n\u00e3o ter\u00e1 uma intoxica\u00e7\u00e3o alimentar no caf\u00e9 da manh\u00e3. Fa\u00e7a a manuten\u00e7\u00e3o do seu carro e inspecione-o, \u00e9 prov\u00e1vel que os freios funcionem quando voc\u00ea precisar deles.<\/span><\/p>

    Para algumas coisas, presumir o pior n\u00e3o \u00e9 m\u00e1 ideia. Trate cada peda\u00e7o de madeira na estrada como se tivesse pregos. Trate cada arma como se estivesse carregada. Dessa forma, se voc\u00ea estiver errado, voc\u00ea est\u00e1 seguro. N\u00e3o o contr\u00e1rio.<\/span><\/p>

    E, finalmente, que tal simplesmente reconhecer quando voc\u00ea est\u00e1 fazendo - e confiando - em uma suposi\u00e7\u00e3o. "H\u00e1 uma. H\u00e1 outro. E um outro."<\/span><\/p>

    Voc\u00ea pode dizer: \u201cIsso \u00e9 bom senso\u201d. Outra pessoa pode dizer: \u201cIsso \u00e9 sabedoria\u201d.<\/span><\/p>

    Eu digo, quem se importa. Chame do que quiser, mas fa\u00e7a algo diferente.<\/span><\/p>

    Circulando de volta<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

    Ent\u00e3o, de volta ao ponto onde a hist\u00f3ria come\u00e7ou: o bloco de madeira que falhou. Sabe-se que a madeira quebra, se estilha\u00e7a e apodrece. Sabendo que isso \u00e9 verdade, n\u00e3o teria sido uma m\u00e1 ideia verificar os blocos regularmente, ficar atento aos blocos que n\u00e3o parecem certos e talvez at\u00e9 encontrar algo melhor do que blocos de madeira para confiar.<\/span><\/p>

    Faz todo o sentido.<\/span><\/p>

    Se voc\u00ea est\u00e1 pensando: \u201cBem, \u00e9 isso que eles deveriam ter feito\u201d, voc\u00ea n\u00e3o entendeu o objetivo desta carta.<\/span><\/p>

    Isso n\u00e3o \u00e9 sobre eles: \u00e9 sobre voc\u00ea.<\/span><\/p>

    Assumir que n\u00e3o h\u00e1 nada de errado com esse bloqueio \u00e9 problema deles, n\u00e3o seu. Seu problema \u00e9 confiar nas suposi\u00e7\u00f5es que voc\u00ea faz onde trabalha. Onde seus seguidores trabalham. Essas suposi\u00e7\u00f5es podem ser provadas erradas.<\/span><\/p>

    Se forem, algu\u00e9m pode acabar muito pior do que apenas parecer tolo.<\/span><\/p>

    Ent\u00e3o, quais s\u00e3o eles?<\/span><\/p>

    Paul Balmert
    <\/span>Junho 2018<\/span><\/p>

    <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Nas Not\u00edcias de gerenciamento de desempenho de seguran\u00e7a, como voc\u00ea provavelmente sup\u00f4s, Paul discute as suposi\u00e7\u00f5es que todos fazemos ... e n\u00e3o pense que voc\u00ea sabe o que ele vai dizer. Voc\u00ea pode se surpreender.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":928,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"episode_type":"","audio_file":"","podmotor_file_id":"","podmotor_episode_id":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","filesize_raw":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","itunes_episode_number":"","itunes_title":"","itunes_season_number":"","itunes_episode_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1359],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-927","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hazard-risk"],"yoast_head":"\nSafe to Assume? 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